The amazing month end/start of the month stock market decades long overperformance may have just ended. The carnage we just witnessed embraced exactly that time span, and moreover, came after a nasty drop on Feb 27th, the 2nd last day of February. Many trading strategies (eg. Zweig and Ben Warwick) go long S&P futures whenever we hit the month end with the market under its 5 day moving average.
Many other recent tendencies have failed to hold recently (see sentimentrader.com) and so, like the old up Friday/down Monday pattern that got reversed in the '80s, we may be at the start of a huge change here too. Next month I will play this reversal with puts for the month end and calls for the 4th trading day - and I'll put that on my calendar right now.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
My first visit to your blog :). I hope you checked out Roca, ROK on venture or ROCAF on pink sheets. You were over at my blog, some very good articles on why the fundamentals of moly are so very good right now and the private placement with Sprott is at $1.40, so even through it is up a bit this week, it is still very much at the beginning of the run. They are in Toronto this week for PDAC conference and there are 15,000 investors there.
My other favorite right now is versatile, VV on venture. Today it blipped up to $0.75 from someone accumulating 150,000 shares. I suspect this one can still be accumulated 5-10,000 shares at a time in the $0.65 range. I think it will really start to move after the next earnings report in less than 2 months.
I'm really interested in seeing the earnings report on Northern Orion and Goldcorp this week. Analysts are suggesting 17c for Goldcorp. My estimate is $0.12-0.15, and that was just bases on ratios, not really digging out extraordinary items. And Northern Orion I would suspect to be in the same range.
Post a Comment